On September 9, 2024, Riyadh hosted strategic dialogue meetings between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Russia, India, and Brazil, held on the sidelines of the 161st GCC Ministerial Council Meeting. The seventh joint ministerial meeting of the strategic dialogue between the GCC and Russia was attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, while the GCC-India and GCC-Brazil meetings were attended by their respective foreign ministers, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Mauro Vieira, respectively. This article explores the key implications and messages of these talks, as well as the prospects for future Gulf relations with these three nations.
Position and Partners
The meetings reflect two critical facts for the GCC countries:
1. The Increasing International Importance of Gulf Countries:
The growing global significance of Gulf countries is driving both major and emerging powers to enhance their cooperation with these nations to benefit from key elements of strength in the international system. Some of these strengths are traditional, such as the vast resources available in the Gulf, particularly oil, while others are newer and tied to the Gulf countries' proactive policies, which have made them influential players on both international and regional stages. The most critical elements of this Gulf power are outlined below:
A) Control over Global Energy Sources: The Gulf countries are among the largest exporters of oil and natural gas globally, and their decisions regarding production and exports have a profound impact on the global economy. This influence extends beyond traditional fossil fuels, as Gulf nations are increasingly investing in clean energy markets. These investments, both domestically and internationally, have positioned the Gulf as a major player in the future of global energy.
B) The Strength of the Gulf Economy: The economies of the Gulf are experiencing significant growth in both strength and global positioning. As of September 2023, the combined economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have become the eighth largest in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding USD 2.4 trillion. According to Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary-General of the GCC, this figure is expected to reach $6 trillion by 2050. Additionally, the sovereign wealth funds of the six countries collectively amount to USD 3.225 trillion, underscoring their economic power and the incentives for other nations to cooperate with them.
C) An Influential Role in Global Policies: Gulf countries have emerged as pivotal actors in addressing various regional and global issues. For example, the United Arab Emirates played a key role in facilitating prisoner exchange deals between Russia and Ukraine, while Saudi Arabia has contributed to resolving volatile crises across regions such as Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, and Libya. Beyond geopolitical matters, the Gulf nations also play a significant humanitarian role on the global stage, further enhancing their influence in international relations.
2. The GCC Countries' Diversification of Partners Based on a "Win-Win" Approach:
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have strategically committed to diversifying their partnerships and international relations, adopting a "win-win" approach that benefits all parties involved. This policy, designed to prepare for a post-oil era, aims to establish a broad network of alliances with both major and emerging international powers. For example, Riyadh hosted a Gulf-Chinese session on September 11, 2023, chaired by GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The discussions focused on regional and international issues, enhancing mutual cooperation, and building on the outcomes of the first Gulf-China summit held in Saudi Arabia in December 2022.
These dialogues are expanding beyond China to include a wide range of global actors, including the United States, the European Union, Turkey, and various African nations. Some of these strategic engagements have already produced significant results, such as free trade agreements. Notably, in December 2023, the GCC signed a free trade agreement with South Korea, just three months after concluding a similar agreement with Pakistan. Previously, the GCC had signed free trade agreements with Singapore (December 15, 2008), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries—Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein—(June 22, 2009), and New Zealand (October 31, 2009). On September 8, 2023, the GCC countries extended their joint action plan with Japan for 2024 to 2028.
Currently, the GCC is actively pursuing additional free trade agreements with key global players, including the European Union, Turkey, China, Japan, India, Russia, and Australia. These agreements reflect the GCC's commitment to broadening its international relationships, securing economic opportunities, and ensuring sustainable growth beyond the oil industry.
A Promising Future
Any strategic dialogue between two states or blocs starts from a basic agreement on great interests which must be institutionalized to maximize them. This applies to the Gulf strategic dialogues with Russia, India, and Brazil, and the future of these relations, as follows:
1. The Gulf-Russian Dialogue:
Russia is a key international actor, being the largest oil-producing country outside of OPEC and engaging in constructive dialogue with the Gulf countries and other OPEC members to regulate global oil markets through the OPEC+ group. Russia also holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, with veto power, and possesses the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads, alongside having the world’s second most powerful military. Geographically, Russia is the largest country, spanning North Asia and about 40% of Europe’s area. These factors highlight the significance of the strategic dialogue between the Gulf countries and Moscow, which is becoming increasingly vital amid several global developments. Chief among these is the escalating Russian-Ukrainian war, which threatens to expand further, and the growing coordination between the Gulf and Russia in global energy markets.
This strategic dialogue is not only critical for Russia and the Gulf countries but also for the wider world. It provides an opportunity for the Gulf nations to play a larger role in mediating the Ukraine conflict, especially given their positive relations with both Russia and Ukraine. This potential is underscored by the successes achieved by the UAE in brokering prisoner exchange deals between the two warring sides. The dialogue also strengthens Gulf-Russian cooperation in oil markets through OPEC+ and promotes a coordinated approach to addressing pressing regional challenges.
The Ukrainian crisis and regional conflicts took center stage during the strategic dialogue between the foreign ministers of the GCC countries and Russia, held in Riyadh on September 9. The discussions focused on enhancing Gulf-Russian relations across various fields and exploring ways to politically resolve the Russian-Ukrainian crisis while supporting all efforts aimed at achieving global security and peace. This ongoing dialogue underscores the importance of the Gulf's role in facilitating international diplomacy and maintaining stability in energy markets.
2. The Gulf-Indian Dialogue:
The Arab Gulf region shares deep historical ties with India, spanning centuries and encompassing cultural, political, economic, and strategic dimensions. Although the recent strategic dialogue between the GCC countries and New Delhi marks the first of its kind, there have been ongoing efforts to institutionalize relations between the two sides. Notably, during the eighty-ninth session of the GCC Ministerial Council in December 2004, it was approved to enter negotiations for establishing a free trade area between the GCC and India. In August of that same year, both parties signed a framework agreement for economic cooperation, further reinforcing their commitment to negotiating a free trade area.
The economic dimension remains the cornerstone of this relationship. In 2022, trade between the GCC and India reached approximately $174 billion, accounting for about 11% of the GCC's total commodity trade. Additionally, the GCC's investments in India amount to around $6 billion, spread across various projects. The Gulf region is home to over seven million Indian expatriates, whose remittances significantly bolster India's economy. In turn, India’s rapidly growing economy and its expanding role as a major global market are of great importance to the Gulf countries.
The launch of this first strategic dialogue promises to further enhance the already strong ties between the GCC and India, particularly in light of ambitious strategic initiatives, such as the economic corridor project linking India, the Middle East, and Europe. This project, signed during the G20 summit in India in September 2023, is set to serve as a critical artery connecting major industrial centers, manufacturing hubs, and logistics centers, with key ports in the UAE playing a central role. The project is expected to deliver substantial benefits by streamlining trade and fostering deeper economic integration between the regions.
3. The Gulf-Brazilian Dialogue:
Brazil, as the sixth largest economic power globally and the largest in Latin America, plays a significant role on the world stage. With a population exceeding 210 million in 2024, Brazil's influence continues to grow. The first strategic dialogue between this emerging global economic power and the GCC countries highlights the importance of fostering deeper ties between these regions.
This dialogue has already yielded promising outcomes, including the signing of a memorandum of understanding and a joint action plan for 2024 to 2028. The agreement covers a broad range of areas for cooperation, including political dialogue, security, economic initiatives, education, health, culture, media, youth, sports, agriculture, and food security. These areas of collaboration not only strengthen bilateral relations but also pave the way for enhanced future cooperation, aligning with the growing significance of both Brazil and the Gulf in global economic and geopolitical affairs.
Three Observations
The strategic dialogues hosted by Riyadh between the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and their counterparts from Russia, India, and Brazil underscore several key observations:
1. Collective Gulf Coordination:
The dialogues reflect the Gulf's commitment to act collectively and in coordination when engaging with emerging global powers. This demonstrates the unity and solidarity among the GCC countries as they work together to advance their interests within the framework of a joint Gulf system.
2. BRICS Membership and Cooperation:
The three countries involved in these dialogues—Russia, India, and Brazil—are all members of the BRICS group, which has recently accepted the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as new members. This highlights the growing cooperation and coordination between the GCC and BRICS powers, not only on a bilateral basis but also within the broader BRICS framework.
3. Independent Gulf Foreign Policy:
These dialogues reaffirm the Gulf states' independent approach to foreign policy, which allows them the flexibility to maneuver on the global stage. This independence gives the GCC countries the ability to influence international and regional issues without being constrained by polarized global politics, ensuring that their actions are driven by their own strategic interests.
